Outlook
Expected macroeconomic and industry conditions
The assessment of macroeconomic and industry conditions was based on the assumption of a moderate stabilisation of the global economy. However, this is subject to the recent military escalation in the Middle East since 28 February 2026. The Israeli-American conflict with Iran and its expansion to neighbouring states pose a potential downside risk for the global economy and the mechanical engineering sector, the extent of which cannot yet be conclusively quantified at the time of preparing this report.
The following forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reflect the expectations prior to the outbreak of the military escalation in the Middle East. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.3% in real terms in 2026 and a further decline in the global inflation rate to an expected 3.8%. This means that the stabilisation of the global economy will continue at a moderate level, even though momentum will remain below the long-term historical average of around 3.7%. Growing protectionism, geopolitical fragmentation and political uncertainties continue to act as major dampening factors.
Regional growth differences will remain pronounced in 2026. While the US economy is proving robust with expected growth of 2.4% – driven by fiscal stimulus, a resilient employment market and an easing of financing conditions – the Eurozone will continue to recover only moderately with projected growth of 1.3%. Following a multi-year period of stagnation, the German economy is expected to post slight economic growth of 1.1% in 2026. In a comparison of the G7 countries, Germany will thus improve its relative position compared to Italy (0.7%) and Japan (0.6%), but will remain significantly behind the growth rates of the US and Canada. The persistently weak state of industry, structural location disadvantages and mounting protectionist headwinds will have a particularly dampening effect in Germany. In Asia, China is expected to continue expanding at an above-average rate with growth of 5.0%, while India, with an expected increase of 6.4%, is considered the region’s central growth engine.
Year-on-year gross domestic product (%)
Country/region | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (estimate) |
| Global | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Developed economies | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Eurozone | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Germany | -0.9 | -0.5 | 0.2 |
| France | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Italy | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Spain | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| United Kingdom | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| United States | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Japan | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1.1 |
| Emerging markets and developing countries | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| ASEAN* | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Brazil | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| China | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| India** | 9.2 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| Russia | 4.1 | 4.3 | 0.6 |
*) Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand
**) Fiscal year from 1 April to 31. March
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update January 2026; for 2023: IMF October 2025 Database.
According to the IMF, overall global economic risks remain tilted to the downside in 2026. Political uncertainties, escalating trade conflicts and a fragmented international economic order could noticeably dampen investment, global trade and productivity gains. Particular risks arise from potentially significant US tariff increases, which would represent a considerable burden on foreign demand for export-oriented economies. The IMF also takes a critical view of the risk of a correction on the capital markets in the technology sector should the high productivity potential of AI applications fail to materialise to the expected extent, as well as possible political interference in the independence of central banks. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical tensions harbour the risk of renewed volatility in energy and raw material prices.
For the 2026 financial year, the trade policy conditions and currency effects in the US market remain highly dynamic and characterised by uncertainties. As a result of a ruling by the US Supreme Court on 20 February 2026, which declared previous far-reaching US tariffs unlawful, the uniform tariff cap agreed with the EU in the previous year has become obsolete. In response to this, the US administration introduced new global import tariffs of initially 10% from 24 February 2026. A further increase of this base tariff rate to 15% has already been announced and remains to be monitored over the course of the year. However, exceptions to this cap remain for listed products made of steel, copper, and aluminium, for which tariffs of at least 50% continue to apply. In addition, punitive tariffs of at least 50% are levied on products which the US administration (pursuant to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act) has classified as derivatives. This continues to include flexographic printing presses as well as a large number of spare parts for printing presses. As Section 232 is subject to continuous updates by the US administration, it cannot be ruled out that further products relevant to Koenig & Bauer will be included. This means that the company’s machines, systems, and spare parts will become more expensive in the USA in the current year as well. In addition, EUR/USD developments could result in a further increase in the price of services in the USA.
The following forecasts by the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA) reflect the expectations prior to the outbreak of the military escalation in the Middle East. The VDMA expects the price-adjusted production output of the German mechanical engineering industry to grow by around 1% in 2026. This would mark a cautious turnaround following the anticipated decline in production of around 5% in 2025. Nevertheless, the industry environment remains characterised by massive uncertainties, primarily resulting from a lack of structural reforms, increasing bureaucracy, and geopolitical crises. The growing protectionism is particularly burdensome, as both the rising competitive pressure from China and the increased use of economic sanctions significantly heighten risks in international trade. As mechanical and plant engineering tends to be a late-cyclical sector, it will presumably only be able to benefit to a limited extent from the general economic recovery in 2026.
Forecast
The expected macroeconomic, political and industry-specific conditions in the markets addressed by the Koenig & Bauer Group provide the basis for the forecast for 2026 (1 January 2026 to 31 December 2026) and subsequent years.
The estimates made are based on the assumption that external conditions do not significantly change compared to the current situation. The following external factors play a decisive role:
Geopolitical developments: No further escalation or tighter restrictions in connection with the war in Ukraine or other geopolitical tensions liable to affect supply chains, production processes or sales markets.
Trade policy uncertainties: Continued international trade conflicts, particularly in the US – this is based on the assumption that, based on recent US case law, there will be prompt clarity regarding import tariffs, so that customers can make their investment decisions without trade-related uncertainty – and possible protectionist measures, which could lead to investment restraint or to higher costs in the supply chain.
Macroeconomic conditions: No unexpected re-emergence of higher inflation, interest rate trends or an economic slowdown that could impact demand in central markets.
In addition, the forecast is tied to the company’s own business performance and the successful implementation of strategic initiatives.
The already volatile geopolitical situation has been fundamentally exacerbated by the military escalation in the Middle East since 28 February 2026 (outbreak of the Israeli-American conflict with Iran and its expansion to neighbouring states). At the time of preparing this report, the full extent of the impact on the global economy and mechanical engineering cannot yet be conclusively quantified.
However, there is an acute risk of a significant impairment to the energy and raw material markets, as a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz poses the risk of permanently higher energy prices; this could fuel global inflation once again and place a burden on production costs in the mechanical engineering sector. In addition, logistics and supply chains are under pressure, as the highly uncertain situation on sea routes and at strategic hubs in the Middle East could jeopardise the stability of the flow of goods as well as exports to Asian growth markets. Furthermore, there is a threat of negative effects on the investment climate: A long-lasting military confrontation could noticeably dampen the global willingness to spend on capital goods, especially as customers increasingly focus on preserving liquidity in uncertain times.
All of these developments affect Koenig & Bauer directly – both on the cost side and in terms of global sales.
In addition, specific operational challenges arise: Due to existing travel warnings for countries affected by the current hostilities, the deployment of specialist personnel for assembly, installation, and service assignments is currently severely restricted. This not only impairs the ability to deliver and the timely commissioning of new systems, but also the provision of time-critical on-site services. Possible delays in the final acceptance of machines can also influence the planned realisation of revenue.
The assumptions made in the forecast report are thus subject to the proviso that there is no prolonged military confrontation in the Middle East, no long-lasting disruption of international trade routes, no permanent energy price crisis, and no significant deterioration in the global investment climate.
Strategic target vision IMPACT
With IMPACT, Koenig & Bauer is driving forward the consistent transformation of the Group. The strategic framework defines six central pillars – Intelligence, Market, People, Adaptability, Competitiveness, and Technology – with which the Group is strengthening its resilience and competitiveness in a volatile market environment. IMPACT dictates the direction up to 2030 and beyond in order to increase operational resilience and consistently secure the market position.
Within the framework of this target vision, Koenig & Bauer envisages a strategic revenue potential of €1.5bn with an operating EBITDA margin of at least 8% (excluding special effects such as drupa), which the company also aims to tap into in the medium term by scaling innovative solutions in the global focus markets. The realisation of this potential will be driven forward by the further consistent optimisation of the Group footprint and Group structures. Building on the portfolio streamlining measures already initiated – such as the discontinuation of the CSMetalCan project and the reduction of complexity in the flexo area (spring 2025) as well as the strategic review of Koenig & Bauer Coding GmbH started in July 2025 – the decision taken in January 2026 to shut down the operations of Albert-Frankenthal GmbH forms a consistent next step towards further Group focus and safeguarding long-term competitiveness.
Outlook for 2026: Stable business performance expected in a volatile environment – Guidance shifted to operating EBITDA
Against the backdrop of the current order situation and the volatile geopolitical conditions, Koenig & Bauer expects a continuation of operational stability for the 2026 financial year. With the beginning of the 2026 financial year, the legal representatives of Koenig & Bauer AG have decided to switch the guidance to operating EBITDA. From now on, this key figure will function alongside revenue as the most significant financial performance indicator and will replace operating EBIT. In this way, the company is taking account of the sought-after sharpening of the focus on operating cash generation, improved comparability within the peer group and the future requirements of IFRS 18.
Taking into account the opportunities and risks, the forecast is tied to the following key assumptions: Provided that global economic developments and demand stimuli in the relevant sub-markets remain stable, Group revenue is expected to be on a par with the previous year (2025: €1,302.4m). Assuming that prompt clarity on import tariffs is reached based on recent US jurisprudence, enabling customers to make their investment decisions without trade-related uncertainty, the Executive Board forecasts operating EBITDA of approximately €80m for 2026, consistent with the previous year. For the current financial year, non-operating items could arise, for example, from expenses / income from Group portfolio measures (acquisitions, disposals, adjustments, and other portfolio-related measures, including changes in goodwill) in connection with the strategic review of Koenig & Bauer Coding GmbH launched in July 2025. In addition, expenses / income in connection with restructuring projects could arise in connection with the shutdown of Albert-Frankenthal GmbH’s operations decided in January 2026.
In the 2026 financial year, the Paper & Packaging Sheetfed Systems (P&P) segment is expected to make a stable contribution to revenue at the previous year’s level, and the Special & New Technologies (S&T) segment is expected to make a significantly higher contribution to revenue compared with the previous year. In terms of operating EBITDA, the P&P segment is expected to make a slightly reduced contribution to earnings and the S&T segment a significantly higher contribution to earnings compared to the previous year. Profitability in the S&T segment will be supported by progressive scaling in new business areas as well as stable capacity utilisation in security printing.
| Revenue* | Expectations for 2026 | 2025 in €m |
| Paper & Packaging Sheetfed Systems (P&P) | Stable at previous year‘s level | 741.5 |
| Special & New Technologies (S&T) | Significant increase compared to the previous year | 596.0 |
| Reconciliation | – | -35.1 |
| Group | Stable at previous year‘s level | 1,302.4 |
| Operating EBITDA** | Expectations for 2026 | 2025 in €m |
| Paper & Packaging Sheetfed Systems (P&P) | Slight reduction compared to the previous year | 42.3 |
| Special & New Technologies (S&T) | Significant increase compared to the previous year | 22.2 |
| Reconciliation | – | 15.1 |
| Group | Stable at previous year‘s level | 79.6 |
| Operating EBIT | 2025 in €m | |
| Paper & Packaging Sheetfed Systems (P&P) | – | 25.0 |
| Special & New Technologies (S&T) | – | 9.0 |
| Reconciliation | – | 2.6 |
| Group | – | 36.6 |
*) For revenue, „stable“ corresponds to a change of up to +/- 3%, „slight“ to a change of up to +/- 5%, while changes of +/- 5% or more are described as „significant“.
**) For operating EBITDA, „stable“ corresponds to a change of up to +/- 5%, „slight“ to a change of up to +/- 10%, and changes of +/- 10% or more are considered „significant“.
In view of the earnings performance in 2025 and the persistently challenging global economic environment, the Executive Board and the Supervisory Board will be proposing at the annual general meeting that a dividend be omitted for the financial year as a result of the net loss reported by Koenig & Bauer AG. As Koenig & Bauer attaches great importance to ensuring the appropriate participation of its shareholders in the company’s success, the dividend policy provides for the distribution of a dividend of 15 – 35% of consolidated earnings, with a minimum dividend of €0.30 per share, subject to profitable business performance during the year.